Predictions on the European Union... by my fave technocrat these days.

In recent days, a very good friend of mine --and probably the most brilliant technocrat I've met in these days, even though he doesn't recognize his own abilities on this field -- shared with me some thoughts about Greece and its broken relationship with the Eurozone. And I have to admit that his predictions on the chaotic situation in Greece and the replication that other EU countries will suffer were right.

He told me that if Greece defaults or comes out of the Eurozone or the EU, the rest of the South will have to follow. And that is just happening. The Greek PM resignation a few days ago, and now, the resignation of the Italian PM proves the reasoning behind that theory. Certainly, the EU has been using Greece as a shield for the last 2 years to buy time and put the right structure in place to protect the rest of the south... but they've been too slow and they have totally exhausted the Greeks. He claims that no developed country, including Germany, US, France, UK, would do this to their own people. 

Second, he argues that the big issue here is whether Germany will choose to integrate further or not. He affirms that the european south is weaker than the north and that Germans have been enjoying this differential in the last couple of decades and used it to rebuild their economy after the fall of the Berlin Wall. And so did the French. In fact, many of you maybe don't know that most of the Greek debt is with French and German banks. And the reason is simple: they borrowed money to Greece so they could in turn contract big German and French companies to build all the big infrastructure leading to the Olympics. The new athens airport, thousands of kilometers of roads, new telephony systems, submarines, and the list goes on and on. These all were built by big German and French contractors involved in consortia with some Greek stakeholders in the nineties. 

Even worst, these German and French companies that have accused the Greek procurement system of being plagued with corruption, waste and abuse, were the ones using corruption to do business, and --yes-- they took advantage of this. Don't believe this? Check out one of the biggest FCPA's corruption scandal, starring Siemens, and involving billions of dollars on bribes. And let's not forget that Greece is arguably still owed $95 billion by Germany, who had stripped Greece's central bank assets in WWII. And the case is still open. 

So, this is just politics, he says. The media buzz is just for public consumption. For this technocrat, this is the same old story of balance of power, interweaved with short-term political play and long-term national strategies. 

The positive side it's the opportunity for rebalancing power.. and the whole world is in that state. Typically, the solution that will emerge will be the solution that suits the strongest and best-prepared best, he argues. Here, I would disagree with my favorite technocrat. I know we can do better, and it's up to the courageous people in each of our countries to demand policies that favor regional integration, without prejudicing domestic wealth and growth. 

And in his honor, I will wear today my large change-the-world smile, so we keep the hope and the fight :D